Every settled model pick: the chance we logged before kick-off, and how often it happened. Next to it, the chance the closing price gave (1 ÷ closing odds, bookmaker margin left in). Honest numbers need many picks: a row under 30 picks is marked.
When we said 45 %, it happened 37 % (338 picks).
Worst run so far: 12 losses in a row · deepest drop −51.39 u
| We said % | Happened % | Closing price said % | Picks | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20 % | 16.6 | 0.0 | 14.1 | 6few picks |
| 20–30 % | 25.5 | 23.3 | 21.6 | 120 |
| 30–40 % | 35.2 | 33.1 | 31.1 | 172 |
| 40–50 % | 45.4 | 37.3 | 41.6 | 338 |
| 50–60 % | 54.4 | 49.1 | 50.4 | 324 |
| 60–70 % | 65.0 | 61.9 | 60.8 | 147 |
| 70–80 % | 73.5 | 68.4 | 66.2 | 38 |
| 80–90 % | 83.1 | 100.0 | 69.6 | 2 |
Voids do not count. Our picks since 18 Sept 2026.